NCASBASNCEONOCCEHPML

The North Atlantic Climate System:

 Integrated observationS, attribution and prediction [ACSIS]

 
PRELIMINARY INFORMATION - NOT FOR QUOTING!


Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic Climate System (NACS): in ocean and atmosphere temperature and circulation, in sea ice extent and in key atmospheric pollutants constituents such as ozone, black carbon and methane. The observed changes are unprecedented in the historical record.
Recent evidence includes: a rapid warming of sea surface temperatures; a rapid acceleration in the rate at which the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting; and rapid changes in tropospheric gases and atmospheric aerosols.

Atmospheric Observations

ACSIS will use a range of data sets to build up a comprehensive view of structure and variability of atmospheric composition across the North Atlantic. Composition data sets will include (i) ozone and its precursors, which provide information of changes in tropospheric oxidizing capacity, (ii) methane, a key greenhouse gas whose budget is poorly understood, and (iii) properties of atmospheric aerosol, a potentially important short-term climate forcer. The data will come from our own long-term observatories (Cape Verde, Weybourne and Penlee Point, all currently funded by NERC), and other GAW stations in the North Atlantic, including stations in the AGAGE network (Barbados, Mace Head and Zeppelin) and sites at the Izana observatory in Tenerife and Mt Pico in the Azores. More information about the complete range of ground based stations we will collect data from and their geogrpahical location can be found in Figure 1 and Table 1 below. Data from these sites will provide a record of change on various timescales. They will be complemented by regular campaign measurements using the FAAM BAe146 aircraft.

Map

Figure 1: Geographical locations of the ground-based measurement sites ACSIS will make use of.


Table 1: Information on the ground-based measurement sites ACSIS will make use of (click on links to get information about each specific site).

Name of station (GAW code) Operated by Operating since Key observations Notes



Hourly online [X], Daily [Y], Flasks [Z
ZEP, Zepplin, Svalbard (78.90669N 11.88934E (475 m a.s.l.))  NOAA, NILU 1994 O3 [X], CH4 (GHGs) CO, Ethane [Z], Aerosol
ICE, Iceland (63.40000N 20.28333W (118 m a.s.l.))  NOAA 1992 O3, VOCs [X], CH4 (GHGs), CO [Z] 
SIS, Shetland Isles, UK (60.13334N 1.18333W (84 m a.s.l.))  Met Office, NOAA, CSIRO 1992 O3 [X], GGs, CO [Z] 
AUC, Aucencoth moss, UK (55.79230N 3.24310W (267 m a.s.l.)) CEH 2006 O3, NOx, VOCs [X] Aerosol
MHD, Mace Head, Ireland (53.32583N 9.89944W (5 m a.s.l.)) NOAA, AGAGE, 1998 O3 [X], CH4 (GGs), CO, VOCs [Z], Aerosol
WAO, Weybourne, UK (52?57' N 1? 07' E) UEA  2004 O3, CO, NOx [X]
Penlee Point, Plymouth, UK (52?57' N 1? 07' E) PML  2014 GGs, O3 [X], Aerosol 
AZR, Azores, Portugal (38.77000N 27.38000W (40 m a.s.l.)) NOAA 1983 CH4 (GGs), CO, VOCs [Z]
 FUN, Funchal, Portugal (32.65000N 16.88333W (58 m a.s.l.))
PIM 1989 O3 [X] Data available until 1999.
IZO, Izna, Spain (28.30900N 16.49940W (2373 m a.s.l.)) AEMET, NOAA 1987 O3 [X], CH4 (GGs), CO, VOCs, NOx  [X,Z], Aerosol High altitude observatory (2373m).
CVO, Cape Verde (16.86403N 24.86752W (10 m a.s.l.)) NCAS, UoY, MPI-Jena and IfT 2006 CH4 (and other GHG), O3, CO, VOCs, NOx, halocarbons [X], Aerosol [Y] Both online and flask measurements available for GHGs and CO.
ASC, Ascension Islands (7.97000S 14.40000W (91 m a.s.l.)) NOAA 1989 GHGs, VOCs, CO [Z]
RPB, Ragged Point, Barbados (13.17000N 59.43000W (45 m a.s.l.) NOAA, AGAGE 1985 O3, CO, GHGs [Z]

Earth Observations

ACSIS will also make use of a number of novel EO based records delivered by members of NCEO to provide basin scale information on aerosol, ozone and methane.   Aerosol optical depth and particle size information  is retrieved from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSR-2/AATSR) and available from 1995-2012. Ozone profiles spanning the troposphere and stratosphere are retrieved from a series of nadir-viewing uv spectrometers and available from 1995 onwards.   The aerosol and ozone records are both produced for ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) (see http://cci.esa.int/). Methane concentrations are retrieved from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on MetOp satellites from 2007 onwards.

Sustained Ocean Observations for ACSIS

ACSIS will benefit from sustained in situ ocean data of the very highest quality produced by world leading scientists and quality controlled to the highest international standards. The following table lists the key ocean variables that will be made available to ACSIS. ACSIS will include at least one leading scientist from each of the four major observational programs listed in the table below.

Table 2. Key ocean variables used in ACSIS.

Variables

Source

Lead Centre

Time period

Comments

Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat Transport

RAPID-MOCHA

www.rapid.ac.uk

 

NOC

2004-2020

Including Ekman, Florida Strait and Mid Ocean components

Subpolar gyre overturning and heat transport

OSNAP

www.o-snap.org

www.ukosnap.org

 

NOC

2015-2020

In depth and density space including error estimates

0-2000m heat content

Argo

www.argo.net

www.ukargo.net

 

 

NOC

2006-2020

Optimally interpolated in density space, cross-checked against EN3 and satellite altimetry

Surface longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes

 

NOC Climatology

www.noc.ac.uk

 

NOC

1955-present

For validation of reanalyses


ACSIS Core and Bespoke Simulations

Core simulations are major simulations from which data is made available for community-wide analysis (e.g. CMIP). As in the case of the sustained observations, many of these simulations will not be directly funded by ACSIS but collectively they will provide a major resource for ACSIS partners and the wider community to address ACSIS science questions. Simulations directly funded by ACSIS are indicated in the Comments column.

Table3. Core and bespoke model simulations performed for ACSIS.

 

Model

Resolution

Time period

Ensemble size

Lead Centre

HPC

platform

Comments

 

Global coupled

 

 

 

 

 

 

C1

UKESM1

N96ORCA1

500 yrs

10

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 DECK

Preindustrial control

C2

UKESM1

N96ORCA1

1850-2050

10

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 Historical

C3

GC3

N216ORCA025

1950-2050

10

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 HiRESMIP Historical. WP2.4

C4

HadGEM3-GA-GOML

N216

1950-2050

10

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 DAMIP

Attribution of trends and variability due to solar forcing, aerosols and volcanoes.

WP4.1, 4.2

C5

GC3

N216ORCA025

1950-2050

10

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 DAMIP extension to ozone/aerosols and interaction of forcing with initial conditions. WP4.1, 4.2

C6

UKESM1

N216ORCA025

2005-2020

1

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 MIPs

Nudged simulations for atmospheric composition. WP2.1

C7

UKESM1

N216ORCA025

2005-2020

2

NCAS

ARCHER

ACSIS-WP3

Nudged simulations and perturbed parameter ensembles for atmospheric composition. WP3.1

C8

GC2/GC3

N216ORCA025

1960-2020

10

MO

MO

CMIP6 DCPP Cpt A

Decadal hindcasts.

WP4.1, 4.2

C9

HadGEM3-GA-NEMO

N512ORCA12

100 yrs

1

NOC

ARCHER

For ACSIS WP2.4, ORCHESTRA and PRIMAVERA

 

Atmosphere only

 

 

 

 

 

 

A1

HadGEM3-GA

N216 & N512

1950-2050

10

NCAS

ARCHER

CMIP6 DECK; HiRESMIP. WP2.2

A2

HadGEM3-GA

N216

 

100yr

25

NCAS

ARCHER

For ACSIS WP3.2

Hypothesis testing.

A3

HadGEM3A-UKCA-(GLOMAP)

Nested 1km

2013-2020

20

 

NCAS

ARCHER

High resolution aerosol-cloud interaction case studies. WP2.1

 

Ocean-

sea ice

 

 

 

 

 

 

O1

NEMO-CICE

ORCA12

1958-2020

1

NOC

ARCHER

Historical hindcast.

WP2.3

O2

NEMO-CICE

ORCA025

1958-2020

4

NOC

ARCHER

OMIP Historical hindcast. WP2.3

O3

NEMO-CICE

ORCA025

1958-2020

20

NOC

ARCHER

For ACSIS WP3.3, 3.4

Hypothesis testing.

O4

MITgcm and

NEMO adjoints

1/6 (MITgcm) ORCA1, ORCA025

10 yr

50

BAS

ARCHER

For ACSIS WP3.3, 3.4

Hypothesis testing.


Key to Table

Models:

UKESM1 United Kingdom Earth System Model version 1

GC2/3 Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice-Land Global Coupled model configuration 2/3

HadGEM3-GA 3rd Hadley Centre Global Environment model - Global Atmosphere configuration

GLOMAP Global Model of Aerosol Processes

GOML Global Ocean Mixed Layer model

NEMO Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean

CICE Los Alamos Sea Ice model

Resolution:

N96 order 100km atmosphere horizontal resolution; N215 - order 60km; N215 order 25km

ORCA1 order 1 NEMO horizontal resolution; ORCA025 - order 1/4; ORCA12 - order 1/12

MITgcm Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model

Institutes:

NCAS National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences

MO Met Office

NOC National Oceanography Centre

BAS British Antarctic Survey

ARCHER is the UK national High Performance Computing (HPC) facility

CMIP6 is the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project, with subprojects for underpinning core simulations (DECK), historical climate simulations (Historical), high resolution models (HiRESMIP), Detection-Attribution (DAMIP), ocean models (OMIP) and the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP).

Please see the ACSIS proposal for explanations of the references to various Work Packages (WP)

ORCHESTRA is a companion proposal to ACSIS, focussing on the Southern Ocean, PRIMAVERA is a European Union Project.


References and literature cited

Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Taylor, K. E., Eyring, V., Stouffer, R. J., Bony, S., and Stevens, B.: Climate Model Intercomparison: Preparing for the Next Phase, Eos, Trans. AGU, 95(9), 77, 2014.

Walters, D. N., Best, M. J., Bushell, A. C., Copsey, D., Edwards, J. M., Falloon, P. D., Harris, C. M., Lock, A. P., Manners, J. C., Morcrette, C. J., Roberts, M. J., Stratton, R. A., Webster, S., Wilkinson, J. M., Willett, M. R., Boutle, I. A., Earnshaw, P. D., Hill, P. G., MacLachlan, C., Martin, G. M., Moufouma-Okia, W., Palmer, M. D., Petch, J. C., Rooney, G. G., Scaife, A. A., and Williams, K. D.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 919941, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011, 2011.

Hunke, E. C. and Lipscomb, W. H.: CICE: The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, Documentation and Software Users Manual, Version 4.1, Tech. Rep. LA-CC-06-012, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, available at: http://oceans11. lanl.gov/trac/CICE, last access: 13 July 2015, 2015.

Spracklen, D. V., Pringle, K. J., Carslaw, K. S., Chipperfield, M. P., and Mann, G. W.: A global off-line model of size-resolved aerosol microphysics: I. Model development and prediction of aerosol properties, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2227-2252, 2005.

Jones, C., 2014. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/q/18.10_ColinJones.pdf

Madec, G.: NEMO the OPA9 ocean engine: Note du Pole de Modelisation, Institut Pierre-Simion Laplace, 1:100, available at: http://www.nemo-ocean.eu, last access: 18 November 2013, 2008.

Williams, K. D., Harris, C. M., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Camp, J., Comer, R. E., Copsey, D., Fereday, D., Graham, T., Hill, R., Hinton, T., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Masato, G., Milton, S. F., Roberts, M. J., Rowell, D. P., Sanchez, C., Shelly, A., Sinha, B., Walters, D. N., West, A., Woollings, T., and Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration, Geosci. Model Dev., 88, 15091524, doi:10.5194/gmd-88-1509-2015, 2015.



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